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Perry Leads GOP Field in Iowa

A recent study of n=402 likely Iowa Republican Caucus goers conducted by WPA Research on behalf of Make US Great Again PAC showed Rick Perry with a lead over his rivals for the Republican nomination and with several significant strengths that suggest the potential for further gains in the weeks and months ahead.

The State of the Race

  • Rick Perry’s entrance into the race has re-shuffled the caucus ballot and he now leads Michelle Bachman by three points and Mitt Romney by seven.
    • 23% Rick Perry
    • 20% Michele Bachmann
    • 16% Mitt Romney
    • 9% Ron Paul
    • 8% Herman Cain
    • 7% Rick Santorum
    • 3% Newt Gingrich
    • 2% Jon Huntsman
    • 0% Thad McCotter
    • 12% Undecided/Not Sure
  • Beyond the topline, Rick Perry’s record of job creation and electoral success in Texas has convinced caucus goers that he is the strongest candidate on two critical vote-deciding criteria.
    • Between Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you think would be the best at creating jobs and improving the economy? (candidate names randomized)
      • 38% Rick Perry
      • 27% Mitt Romney
      • 18% Michele Bachmann
      • 1% All of these
      • 2% None of these
      • 14% Not Sure
  • Between Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Mitt Romney, who do you believe has the best chance the defeat Barack Obama for President? (candidate names randomized)
    • 41% Rick Perry
    • 24% Mitt Romney
    • 13% Michele Bachmann
    • 6% All of these
    • 3% None of these
    • 14% Not Sure
  • Rick Perry has become the clear favorite of the conservative caucus goers who make up the majority of the caucus vote and with the Tea Party conservatives whose grassroots energy will be critical to caucus success.
    • Ballot among self-described “very conservative” caucus goers (55% of caucus goers).
      • 30% Rick Perry
      • 23% Michele Bachmann
      • 10% Herman Cain
      • 9% Rick Santorum
      • 9% Mitt Romney
      • 7% Ron Paul
      • 3% Newt Gingrich
      • <1% Jon Huntsman
      • 0% Thad McCotter
      • 8% Undecided/Not Sure
  • Ballot among caucus goers who describe themselves as “A Tea Party conservative concerned about spending, the federal debt, and protecting the U.S. Constitution” (25% of caucus goers).
    • 30% Rick Perry
    • 22% Michele Bachmann
    • 13% Ron Paul
    • 11% Herman Cain
    • 9% Mitt Romney
    • 6% Rick Santorum
    • 2% Newt Gingrich
    • <1% Jon Huntsman
    • 0% Thad McCotter
    • 8% Undecided/Not Sure

The survey toplines can be viewed here: http://www.wparesearch.com/wp-content/uploads/Iowa-Statewide-GOP-Caucus-Ballot_Press-Release-MQ_110825.pdf

The crosstabs can be viewed here: http://www.wparesearch.com/wp-content/uploads/Iowa-Statewide-GOP-Caucus-Ballot_Press-Release-Crosstabs_110825.pdf

Methodology

Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research conducted a research study of likely Republican Caucus goers in Iowa.  Likely caucus goers were identified by first selecting a sample of previous Iowa republican primary voters as well as new Republican registrants since the 2010 primary and then asking a self-selection question to screen out those who do not plan to participate in the caucus process.

WPA Research interviewed a random sample of 402 likely caucus goers.  The sample was stratified based on gender, age, and geographic region.  This stratified random sample methodology allows us to eliminate post survey “weighting” that can reduce the reliability of survey results.

Respondents were contacted by a live telephone interviewer on August 21-22, 2011.  The margin of error for the whole sample is equal to +4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases.

 

 

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