Campaigns & Elections, August, 1993
1. “I know my constituents, so I don’t need a poll.”
Legislative districts are large. No matter how involved you are with the community, it is possible to know only a small fraction of the constituents. Many candidates and public officials keep in touch with their friends, neighbors, business associates, supporters and community activists as well as the small number of people who make their positions known through letters or phone calls. But the opinions of these individuals are often quite different from those less involved and less interested in politics — in other words, the very people who make up the bulk of the district. Failing to understand that the people with whom you are in touch are often not representative of the district at large can seriously jeopardize a campaign. A poll is conducted with a random sample of likely voters, not just those activists or those with who you are in contact.
2. “I don’t need a poll to tell me what to think or what to do.”
In a representative democracy, candidates and public officials are elected to reflect the views of the people they represent. The best way to find out those views is to have a reliable measure of public opinion — a poll.
Pollsters do not tell a public official or candidate what their positions should be on the issues, or how they should respond to public policy questions. A pollster’s job is not to tell a candidate what to think. But a responsive and responsible public official must know the range of opinions within his or her district. A good poll can provide that information.
A pollster will not try to change your opinions based on the results of a poll, but you want to modify your vocabulary or emphasize different points as a result of a poll. A public opinion survey can guide a campaign with necessary information, such as what issues to emphasize, as well as provide the strategy to communicate the reasons behind positions and decisions in such a way that more support for your views might be generated.
3. “As soon as I hire a pollster, I’ll never see him or her again.”
A pollster should be committed to the campaign, and have experience in election and public policy polling, not market research. The pollster should be attentive to the campaign, working on only a limited number of campaigns at once. Think about it. If a pollster is working on seven U.S. Senate races, three gubernatorial campaigns, 16 congressional races and a dozen state legislative races during the same election cycle, how much attention do you think your campaign will receive? Expect the attention of the principals of the firm selected, not junior analysts who have limited experience and no involvement with this particular campaign.
While you need to benefit from the experience of your pollster, expect the race to be viewed as distinct from others. A poll should be custom-designed for your district, not some off-the-shelf questionnaire used in countless other races.
4. “I already have a consultant — I don’t need another one to play with numbers.”
The pollster, as a member of your strategy team, should be the keeper of the message. The pollster should play an ongoing role to make sure the message is on track and on target at all times. All voter communication should convey a consistent message, so the pollster should be available to review speeches, direct mail, television and radio advertisements, and other campaign messages. Of course, the pollster is not the campaign manager, nor is the pollster the speech writer, or the direct mail, or television specialist.
5. “A poll costs a lot of money. I’d rather spend my money on other things.”
Most campaigns budget about 5 percent to 10 percent of the overall campaign budget for research. The costs of a research program are based on the size and scope of the campaign, and there are two key variables — the length of the questionnaire and the number of people interviewed (sample size). A typical benchmark poll contains about 75 response items, and usually takes about 20 minutes to complete.
For a high-quality, professional public opinion survey, expect to pay anywhere from $12,000 to $17,000 for a sample size of 400. Shorter, follow-up polls, taken midway through a campaign, are less expensive. Overnight tracking polls taken for fine-tuning near the conclusion of a campaign, cost even less.
6. “All I want to know is what portion of the vote I am getting.”
Too many people think that polling is just about the trial heat question: “If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?” Everyone could wait until election day to find that out. A poll should be designed to develop a strategy, to find the winning arguments for the campaign, its strengths and weaknesses, as well as the strengths and potential vulnerabilities of your opponent.
A poll should be conducted early, before the campaign begins in earnest, so that the message, the announcement speech, and early walking brochures are all guided by the poll results. It is better to have the message designed right the first time, than to spend the rest of the campaign correcting it. Perhaps most importantly, a poll will be able to tell which messages are right for which voting constituencies, such as women, seniors or those in a particular geographic area.
7. “Let’s use campaign volunteers to take the poll.”
Volunteers are a precious resource and they must be used most effectively — to persuade voters that the candidate should be elected. Comprehensive interviewing requires trained interviewers skilled in administering the questionnaires and who maintain their neutrality. Supportive volunteers may tend to overstate the case by wanting to give you the information they think you want to hear. They may argue with those supporting the opponent because, as volunteers, they want to convert all voters to your side. This is why they should be used for persuasion calling, voter identification, and phone banking.
The accuracy of the data collected by volunteers cannot be, and should not be, guaranteed. Donors who must consider the viability of your campaign simply do not trust volunteer polls; they depend on the reputation of the polling firm. Some campaigns that attempt to use volunteers find that the interviewing process (which should take three to four days) can take up to six weeks because of scheduling difficulties. Volunteers often “burn-out” when interviewing, and are then not available to the campaign during the critical get-out-the-vote phase of the campaign.
8. “Polling is a luxury I really can’t afford.”
You can’t afford not to poll. First, if the message is wrong, or given to the wrong people, you limit the chances of success. Second, because in large districts a candidate cannot communicate with all voters, there is a need to know which voting groups need special attention, and which voters do not need as much attention, either because you will always have their support or never have their support, no matter what. A comprehensive benchmark poll that analyzes voting groups and the messages to which they respond will save money in the long run by enabling the use of a voter communication budget most effectively.
9. “All polling firms are alike.”
No, they are not. In fact, they vary widely along a number of dimensions. Some polling firms are commercial market research firms that dabble in politics, do not have the experience, and simply do not understand political polling. Other firms are political polling specialists, but are retained by so many campaigns at once, that the principals of the firm simply cannot give the attention to each campaign that it requires. Some firms simply throw a book of computer printouts at the campaign or give a one-shot oral briefing and do not provide any written strategic analysis or campaign recommendations. And some firms charge additional fees for a written report, while some charge monthly retainers for ongoing consultation. They move on to the next campaign and they are not heard from again.
The very best firms do several things. First, they take on only the number of campaigns in which they can provide the level of attention the campaign requires. Second, they give campaigns full, comprehensive, written reports that serve as the basis for the strategic plan. These reports look at each question and each demographic group so that the messages for each group are clearly identified. Third, they remain part of the campaign strategy team, and are available to the campaign through election day and beyond.
10. “Pollsters just give candidates the information they want to hear.”
Good pollsters do not. The campaign team needs to understand the political landscape, not stroke the candidate’s ego. If a pollster “cooks the numbers,” or asks biased questions, a candidate has the wrong pollster. Remember, the purpose of a poll is to provide the candidate with accurate information to hone the message and communicate with the voters. The one place a candidate cannot tolerate “yes” people is when hiring a pollster. A pollster who is known for fabricating or manipulating data will have no credibility with a fund raising base.
Campaigns & Elections, August, 1993 by Robert G. Meadow, Heidi von Szeliski.
