It’s quite possible that Super Tuesday, designed to give one presidential candidate a boost toward the eventual party nomination, may not be particularly definitive in 2012.

Initial polling has been published, or trends are clear, in nine of the thirteen states hosting caucuses or primaries on or before Super Tuesday, and the preliminary information suggests that the race will move toward the next group of states in close fashion.

Currently, Pennsylvania former Sen. Rick Santorum holds definitive leads over Massachusetts ex-Gov. Mitt Romney in Ohio-66 delegates (42-24%; Rasmussen Reports; 2/15), Oklahoma-40 delegates (39-23%; The Sooner Poll; 2/8-16), and Washington-53 delegates (38-27%; Public Policy Polling; 2/16-19).  He also has a close lead in Michigan-30 delegates (38-34%; Rasmussen; 2/20).  The grand total of delegates apportioned in the aforementioned Santorum states is 189. 
Mr. Romney has no published polling data for the states where he commands a definitive advantage with the exception of Virginia, but the outcomes are unquestioned.  He will win his home state of Massachusetts-41 delegates, along with Vermont-17 delegates, and Virginia-49 delegates.  He has a close lead in Arizona-29 delegates (36-33%; PPP; 2/17-19).

The Old Dominion is becoming more important than originally projected.  Christopher Newport University conducted a poll of VA Republican primary voters (2/4-13) and found Romney leading Rep. Ron Paul 53-23%.  Remember, only Romney and Paul qualified for the Virginia ballot, meaning one of the candidates will win a majority of the vote – almost assuredly the former Massachusetts Governor.  Breaking 50% is important because under Virginia delegate apportionment rules, any candidate receiving a majority of the vote receives unanimous support from all 49 delegates.  Therefore, the inability of Santorum and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich to recruit enough petition signatures to participate in the Virginia primary will cost them dearly.  

Adding the delegate contingents from the aforementioned Romney states produces an aggregate count of 136.

Georgia is now becoming extremely interesting.  With the delegate penalty sanction assessed to Florida for its defiance of Republican National Committee rules, the Peach State now becomes the fourth largest contingent with 76 delegates.  According to a survey from the Atlanta-based Insider Advantage (2/20), Mr. Gingrich leads his GOP opponents with 26%, but he is followed closely by Messrs. Romney and Santorum with 24 and 23%, respectively.  Therefore, it is clear that Georgia is anyone’s game.  But, if the vote stays this evenly divided, the candidates will likely split the pool of delegates almost evenly, thereby giving no one a clear upper hand.

There is no available polling for Tennessee-47 delegates, or the caucus states of Alaska-27 delegates, Idaho-32 delegates, and North Dakota-28 delegates.  Combined, these so far unaccounted for states total 134 delegates.  The aggregate number of delegates contained in the universe of Super Tuesday and Super Tuesday cusp states is 535, or 23.4% of the entire Republican National Convention delegate universe.

It is reasonable to expect momentum to shift toward one candidate should either Santorum or Romney sweep the pre-Super Tuesday states of Michigan, Arizona, and Washington.  If this happens, then Super Tuesday itself could become definitive after all.

According to Gallup, unemployment rate, without seasonal adjustment, is 9.0% in mid-February, up from 8.6% for January.

Looking past the topline unemployment numbers, the Gallup data shows an increase in underemployment which now stands at 19%.

Taken together, these measures suggest that while the BLS unemployment number gave Obama a slight reprieve in the economic headlines department in January, the real state of the economy remains weak. With the CBO projecting greater than 8% unemployment through 2014, it doesn’t appear that Obama will enjoy the kind of economic growth necessary to take his handling of the economy as an issue off the table. As a result, both Obama’s handling of the economy and the billions in stimulus money that didn’t create jobs remain issues that Republicans can win on in 2012.

As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political environment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, every Friday WPA complies the key numbers from the week and provides analysis of key trends.

In addition to the the key political numbers, this week’s analysis includes:

• Public reaction to Obama’s contraception policy
• An example of how question phrasing on complex policy issues can alter results dramatically.
• What a difference 8 days makes: Santorum’s rise to the top in just over a week.
• Voters would like Obama’s budget to contain reduced spending.

The key take aways for this week:

Senator Rick Santorum’s victories in the Midwest have translated into large gains nationally.

• Santorum’s support has doubled in 8 days.

The Obama Administration’s new contraception policies are creating waves among the Catholic community.  One of the interesting things this week has been seeing the variety of responses to different question wording as different organizations attempt to gauge the public opinion on a complex policy issue.

• Poll wording on two independent polls can shift perceived support for Obama’s plan by as much as 22%.
• Despite the variety of poll responses, it is clear that the issue is splitting along party lines.

When voters are engaged on Obama’s budget plan spending reductions become a higher priority.

(from the PRIsm Political Report)

Hawaii 

The Hawaii US Senate campaign is turning crazy.  Now, another new poll reports starkly different results to some others already in the public domain.  Ward Research, a Hawaii-based survey research firm, conducted a new poll with an abnormally long sampling period for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser newspaper (1/26-2/5; 771 HI registered voters) and found Rep. Mazie Hirono (D-HI-2) to be enjoying a huge lead in both the Democratic primary and the general elections.   

This contrasts with the latest Merriman Group independent study (1/18-19) that showed only a six point split between Hirono and former Gov. Linda Lingle (R).  It further depicted the Congresswoman trailing former Rep. Ed Case (D-HI-2) by two points in the intra-party vote. 
The Ward numbers give Hirono a huge 57-37% lead over Lingle when the two are matched in what many predict could become a hotly contested general election.  Additionally, the Democratic Congresswoman maintains a 56-36% lead over Case, according to this latest survey.  For her part, Hirono’s own pollster, The Benenson Strategy Group, released a survey in November posting her to a similar 54-36% lead over Case.  

But the Merriman poll is not the only one reporting a much different result than Ward.  Public Policy Polling’s October survey showed Hirono besting Lingle 48-42%, and the Republican former Governor leading Case 45-43%.  Hirono’s Democratic primary advantage was just five points over Case, 45-40%.   

With so much discrepancy already existing among the pollsters, it is difficult to get a true read upon this race.  Since President Obama will run extremely well in Hawaii, the Democratic nominee will likely get a boost in the November general election.  On the other hand, Lingle’s huge $1.767 million fourth quarter in fundraising puts her ahead of any other candidate, financially.  It is clear she will have the monetary backing to run a strong campaign to compliment her almost universal name identification.  Expect this race to become competitive, but the intangibles still favor Ms. Hirono and the Democrats. 

Massachusetts 
The MassInc Polling Group conducted a statewide Senatorial survey (2/6-9; 503 MA registered voters) for WBUR radio in Boston, a National Public Radio station.  They find former Obama Administration Consumer Affairs Advocate Elizabeth Warren (D) leading Sen. Scott Brown (R) 46-43%.  Several previous polls have also shown Warren to be ahead, and by more than two points.

The data again illustrates how difficult it is for any Republican to win in the Bay State.  Despite trailing, Sen. Brown’s favorability ratings are quite high.  A full 50% of those interviewed say they have a positive opinion of Sen. Brown versus just 29% who registered an unfavorable comment.  By contrast, Ms. Warren’s ratio is 39:29%.

The poll asked eight preference comparison questions about the candidates’ backgrounds, their views toward the middle class, who would perform better on economic issues, etc.  Brown scored below Warren on only one substantive issue question, and on that by just one point.  By a margin of 32-31%, the sampling universe said that Ms. Warren would better relate to the middle class.  An additional 21% indicated the two candidates were equal in understanding the needs of middle class families.

The only question where Brown trailed by a relatively large percentage (34-24%) was in response to which candidate seems to have campaign momentum.

Therefore, despite the favorable reviews, Brown still trails on the ballot test question.  These results are similar to those found in Florida, where Rep. Connie Mack IV is challenging Sen. Bill Nelson (D).  There, Nelson’s personal numbers appear to be as good as Brown’s, but he too finds himself pitted in a close election battle.

With both candidates being heavily funded – Brown has already raised $8.6 million with $12.9 million in the bank; Warren has gathered slightly more, $8.9 million, but has considerably less, $6.14 million, cash-on-hand – it is clear this campaign will play out over a long course of time.  The intangibles definitely favor Warren because a candidate uniting the Democratic Party will be very difficult to derail in one of the most Democratically-loyal states in the entire country.  Sen. Brown is the right candidate to hold the seat for his party, but even he may not have enough ability to stem what could possibly be a very strong tide against him.

Drilling down further, the partisan breakdown Democrats (who are voting for Obama anyway) favor job creation (63%) and Republicans (who are voting against Obama) favor spending cuts (61%). The challenge for Obama is that Independent voters look more like Republicans than Democrats with 43% wanting the budget to focus on spending cuts and 40% wanting the focus to be on creating jobs.

While the question from the Hill Poll gives some insight into what Americans prefer, the reality of the situation is that they want both reduced spending and more jobs. It is the job of the Republicans to argue that the two aren’t mutually exclusive. While Republicans in Congress have put out a credible plan on jobs (http://www.gop.gov/indepth/jobs/facts) and have slowed the growth of government, Obama has clearly broken his promise to cut the deficit. Even the Obama administrations recent trumpeting of the unemployment numbers seems hallow when you realize that 1.2 million people stopped looking for work and dropped out of the labor force.

The bottom line is that as Obama releases his budget, Republicans need to remind voters that 1) they are the party of lower spending (an issue where Obama has clear failed) and 2) they have a plan to get the economy going again without adding to our already significant debt.

When writing, don’t make your audience work to understand you.  Use the simplest vocabulary necessary to communicate the point without dumbing it down.  Words have specific meanings, and big words can give nuance to phrases.  However, all too frequently people find the largest word that applies to the situation and use it because they think they will sound more intelligent.  In fact, it can do exactly the opposite.

2)Keep visuals simple and clean

If someone has to think about what they’re reading and looking at, they are less likely to believe it’s true.  Studies like the one linked above show that even reading something printed on a low toner printer can lead to reduced believability regardless of the content.  Clean and crisp visuals make a difference and are something you can control.  If you’re presenting numbers, show them as pictures and make them easy to understand at a glance.  Infographics are the latest thing these days, but they fall prey to the same pitfalls as the ordinary PowerPoint.  Visuals should help make your idea easier to understand, not get in the way of it.

3)Don’t make people work to understand you

People in general are mentally lazy.  They don’t like to engage their conscious brain unless it is absolutely necessary.  So just as you should use smaller words where possible and visual scenery that simplify your idea, without overcrowding it, you should also make sure that the whole memo, presentation, speech, video or, ad spot is as simple as it can be while still getting the idea across fully.   Cluttered charts, walls of text, complicated visual graphs, and rambling asides during speeches may all make sense to YOU.  Maybe you feel that if someone can’t understand your ideas then they’re not the audience you’re trying to reach.  Remember that simplifying the presentation of an idea does not necessarily mean simplifying the idea itself.  Even when, or especially when, you’re trying to communicate a complicated concept, it is important to make it as easy as possible to digest.

If your ideas are good, they won’t need to be hidden in walls of text, complicated number tables, and fancy language.  Break things into chunks, put your numbers into pictures, and use simple, clean, and unadorned language.

But enough maundering, here’s what was cool this week:

• With all of the news this week and last, we are definitely off the edge of the map in the Presidential Race.

With three different candidates winning the first three Republican caucus/primary votes, it felt like we were in a rare place.  Then Romney won Florida handily and it looked like maybe the march to a Romney nomination was on in earnest.

Then came this week and Rick Santorum’s sweep of the three “beauty contest” races.  While that didn’t automatically net him delegates, it definitely breathed new life into his campaign and gave him a number of positive news cycles and a fundraising boost.

Now, none of this is to say that Romney’s twin advantages of money and large winner-take-all states with turnouts that will look more like Florida than the Colorado caucus won’t eventually win out.  But all of our typical models suggest that the nominee should be all but decided by now, and that’s clearly not happening.

At the same time that the Republican primary contest was becoming more complicated, the general election picture became murkier.  Obama’s good jobs report was followed by a real bump in his approval ratings.  This isn’t, by itself, enough to take a second term out of the “highly unlikely” column, but it’s enough of a step in the right direction to cause all of us who thought we had a handle on 2012 to start paying very close attention.

• If you haven’t checked it out already, you should take a look at our chart round-up.

Best way on the internet to know what’s going on in a week in around ten easy-to-digest slides.  Not too much, not too little.  It’s like data for Goldilocks.

• I’m a stats guy.  Lots of people I know and work with are humanities types.  I think this is a particularly interesting study.

That’s right, there might be a reason that I’m a little socially awkward but there’s also a reason all of you humanities types are depressed.

• I couldn’t find a cool visualization this week.  Must be a slow week in that world.  So instead, here is Neil Gaiman’s acceptance speech for the SFX award for “best script.”

Just generally awesome.  Also, if you’ve never read anything by Gaiman, you should.  He’s probably our greatest living writer.

This reminded me of working with a couple of hospitals a few years ago that just got a new da Vinci® machine and was all about wanting to find a way to put this new machine in their ads.  Apparently, I was out of the loop and this was the new emerging trend to advertising your hospital’s new state-of-the-art medical machines.  Maybe it’s just me but I thought that the new MRI, PET, or CAT machines still look like a big donut.

Over the last year or two the new trend is to post your Emergency Room wait times.  Advertising your ER wait time has questioned whether or not your hospital is attracting the right patient to your ER.  Is this type of advertising affective for increasing ER visit?  Yes.  However, review of ER visits from this advertising has shown that there is a fairly sizable portion of ER patients would have otherwise had gone to an urgent care or primary care physician, for example.  When advertising ER wait times you’re reaching out to more than just people with a heart attack or to someone who just feel and broke their leg.

These ads basically tell me that “We have a robot,” We’re high tech.” “We have short ER wait times,” and “We’ve helped people get better.”

There’s been little attempt by some hospitals to frame the message in the context of the audience.  They’ve simply told you that we got it, we’re here, and we can help.

In order to create an effective advertisement it is critical to really know who your target is, understand which factors consumer base their decision on, and to be able to identify if there are any commonalities in consumers’ habits or preferences.  Knowing this information can make the difference in your marketing campaign.

By Shira Toeplitz Posted at 1:24 p.m. today

Rep. Adam Kinzinger (above) faces fellow GOP Rep. Don Manzullo in a primary next month. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Illinois Republicans Don Manzullo and Adam Kinzinger are locked in a competitive primary, according to a new survey from a super PAC supporting Kinzinger.

The Congressmen are tied at 43 percent in the poll paid for by the Campaign for Primary Accountability. 14 percent of survey respondents said they were undecided about the March 20 primary.

Democrats controlled the redraw of the Illinois Congressional map last year, and the state lost a seat in reapportionment. Manzullo lives in the overhauled 16th district, and Kinzinger opted to run against him there after he was moved into a nearby district that is heavily Democratic. Some of Kinzinger’s current territory lies in the redrawn 16th district.

The Kinzinger-Manzullo matchup will be the first primary between two GOP Members this cycle. And according to this initial polling, it’s on track to be a competitive race.

The poll also showed both Republicans were relatively well-liked in the heavily Republican district. Sixty percent of respondents said they had a favorable opinion of Manzullo, while Kinzinger scored a 62 percent favorability rating among the poll participants.

The Campaign for Primary Accountability supports several candidates, including Kinzinger. Its stated goal is to “bring true competition to our electoral process, to give voters real information about their choices, and to restore fair, not fixed, elections,” according to the super PAC’s website.

The Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research poll took the opinion of 301 likely GOP voters in the redrawn district Feb. 6-7. The survey had a margin of error of 5.7 points.