What’s wrong in Appalachia (And what do we do about it?)
The early November statewide elections in Kentucky and West Virginia were something of a yawn compared to the excitement of 2009 where big Republican wins in Virginia and New Jersey presaged the 2010 wave that swept Republicans into a dominant position in the House and in states nationwide. In Kentucky, Republican nominee David Williams was [...]
Poll Check: GOP holding steady in NJ – increasing lead in VA
Republican candidates for Governor in Virginia and New Jersey are reaping rewards for the national Democrats problems on the health care front. As you can see below, despite current Governor Jon Corzine’s spending spree, he continues to be stuck in the high 30′s, while Republican candidate Chris Christie has inched up from the mid-40′s to [...]
Republicans On-track to Victories in VA and NJ
Despite being dealt significant loses in 2006 and 2008 nationwide, Republicans are on-track to pick-up the Governor’s mansion in both Virginia and New Jersey. Two recently released surveys show the Republican nominee maintaining a strong lead over their Democratic opponent: VA Gov (6/30 – 7/2) McDonnell (R): 49% Deeds (D): 43% NJ Gov (7/7) Christie [...]
State Budget Shortfalls Can Force Political Shift
A piece in the WSJ highlights that the recession in a dozen state governments across the nation will last for years to come: State budgets look bad now, but they are set to get worse. The bulk of funds from the federal government’s stimulus package will be allocated by 2011, but tax collections aren’t likely to [...]
When do endorsements matter?
This article was co-authored by Chris Wilson and Alex Brunk Endorsements are a matter of some debate among most political operatives and pollsters. Conventional wisdom is that they don’t matter much. When they do matter, it’s because they run contrary to expectations. A Democratic Party official endorsing a Democratic candidate is not news. Colin Powell [...]
Conservative versus Moderate Strategy Unhealthy for GOP
Hours before Chris Christie claimed victory in the Republican Primary for New Jersey Governor, the Politico printed an article claiming that the race between Christie and Steve Lonegan was a classic moderate versus conservative battle: The contest pits two wings of the Republican Party against each other, with Christie widely viewed as the moderate conservative [...]
Roll Call: Chris Perkins joins WRS
Roll Call May 21, 2009 By Shira Toeplitz Roll Call Staff Things Are Perkins Up. GOP strategist Chris Perkins has joined Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research as vice president of the polling firm. A native of the Lone Star State, Perkins will run the Austin office and oversee the firm’s Texas operations. Perkins most recently [...]
Watts now leads in OK Gov Match-up
See the Summary Tables (pdf). A recent WPA survey of 500 likely Oklahoma Republican primary voters indicates a very tight race for the Republican nomination for Governor. Former Congressman and Corporation Commissioner J.C. Watts leads Congresswoman Mary Fallin 39% to 36% if the Republican primary election for Governor were held today. Randy Brogdon receives five [...]
Why The Rush To Annoint AG In PA Governor Race?
Since Barack Obama won Pennsylvania last November overwhelmingly, and Attorney General Tom Corbett won his re-election, many Republican leaders in PA are rushing to anoint AG Tom Corbett the Republican nominee for Governor because of that “impressive” victory. But let’s look at the race a little closer. AG Tom Corbett is a good man, and one [...]
Maps for Hacks: 2010 Senate and Gubernatorial Races
Several new maps today from CQ, indicating a number of toss-up races for Seante and Governor. This gives you an idea of how many major races are emerging. Links to Senate Map/Gov Map
Brownback has big lead in Kansas; Moran leads Tiahrt
Sam Brownback holds a big lead and is the odds-on favorite to win the Republican nomination to run for Kansas Governor, according to a recent statewide survey. If the primary were held today, Brownback would defeat Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh almost fourt to one: 64% to 17%, with 20% undecided. Most importanlty in a [...]
WRS Vice President Scott Migli Releases PA Assessment
Today, Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research, Vice President Scott Migli released an assessment of the political environment in Pennsylvania. The survey shows Pennsylvanians current feelings on Governor Ed Rendell, the Legislature, their personal finances and changes in the demographics of the state and what they mean for the future. To read the assessment please go [...]
McCain could lose popular vote and still win
There are two scenarios that could help McCain win the election, while still losing the popular vote: 1) McCain will earn a great majority of undecided voters, putting him over the top in all the states that have close races. 2) There is a real and substantial Bradley effect that will keep Obama from getting [...]
The Closing Days
Tomorrow, we will only be 18 days away from a landmark election. Despite the best efforts of Republicans and their deploying the most talented operatives and employing the most effective consultants, the Grand Old Party is facing significant losses at nearly every level. There will some surprises as several Democratic-held seats fall to lesser known [...]
McCain’s Math Problem
A poll released today in New Mexico reported a 5 point advantage for Barack Obama over John McCain. As both Senators campaign in swing states, the five electoral votes in fiercely competitive New Mexico become crucial to Electoral College mathematics. In 2000, Al Gore squeaked through with 366 votes to take New Mexico’s electoral votes. [...]
Civil Rights in Nebraska
We are very proud of our work for Ward Connerly and the American Civil Rights Institute. We recently released a new study in Nebraska which was conduced for the Nebraska Civil Rights Initiative Committee, which is headed up by Doug Tietz. California based media consultant Joe Justin is doing the ads, as he did in [...]
Wilson Research Strategies VP Attends Indiana Republican State Party Dinner
Last evening, Scott Migli, Vice President with Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research attended the Indiana State Republican Party dinner in support of Governor Mitch Daniels re-election camapign. The featured speaker of the evening was former Governor Jeb Bush, who spoke on the importance of re-electing Gov. Mitch Daniels and making sure Senator John McCain is [...]
Air Wars Analysis, June 18, 2008
RNC against Obama, “Experience” The RNC’s ad against Barack Obama obviously has good substance, but insiders are put-off by the fact that it’s just not a pretty ad. The spot energizes Republicans, connects with Independents, but meets with mediocre scores among Democratic insiders who are clearly rallying around their likely nominee. John Sununu (R-NH), “Innovation” [...]
WRS Vice President to Manage Gerlach for PA Gubernatorial Bid
Posted by Scott Migli on Tuesday, August 18th, 2009 at 10:58 AM
WPA Vice President Scott Migli was named pollster for Jim Gerlach in his campaign for Governor of Pennsylvania earlier this year. Today Scott is taking a temporary leave of absence from WPA to manage Congressman Gerlach’s bid. WPA CEO Chris Wilson will take on the role as pollster for the Gerlach campaign and will handle [...]