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WPA’s Weekly Political Brief

As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political environment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, every Friday WPA compiles the key numbers from the week and provides analysis of key trends.

In addition to the key political numbers, this week’s analysis includes:

  • The final jobs report before the election.
  • Romney’s image ratio compared to Obama’s.
  • Early voting compared with 2008.
  • A look at final polling in swing states.
  • Gallup projections on the 2012 electorate.

The key take aways for this week:

  • The unemployment rate increased by 0.1% to 7.9% in the final jobs report before the election (pg. 9).
    • Job growth per month has averaged 157,000 in 2012 compared with an average increase of 153,000 in 2011.
  • Romney holds a 3 point advantage in his image ratio compared with Obama (pg. 11)
    • This general indicator suggests that Romney is in good position for November 6th.
  • Mitt Romney is outperforming both John McCain’s 2008 early vote share and is currently leading Obama among early voters (pg. 12).
    • Romney leads Obama, who is down 10% from his 2008 share, 50% vs. 43% among early voters nationwide.
  • A final look at the swing states across the country shows tight races that could result in a victory for either candidate (pg. 13).
    • Barack Obama won all of these states in 2008 and many by significant margins.  Unlike 2008, the battle for the White House is taking place in traditionally blue states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa.
  • Gallup released their projections of the composition of the electorate (pg. 14).
    • Many demographics are similar to 2008, except party.
    • People identifying as Republicans increased from 29% in 2008 to 36% in 2012.
 

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